RIM pins comeback hopes on BB10 launch - Financial Times

The wait is almost over. On Wednesday Research In Motion, the Canadian manufacturer of the BlackBerry family of smartphones and PlayBook tablet, will finally launch its BlackBerry 10 operating system and two smartphones designed to run on it. Thorsten Heins, who took over as RIM's chief executive just under a year ago, has bet RIM's future – perhaps its very survival – on the success of BB10. In anticipation of the launch, RIM's stock has rebounded from a low of $6.22 in September to just under $17.54 at the end of last week. Like Mr Heins, it seems investors are betting that the launch of the new handsets will mark the beginning of a remarkable comeback. Overall, RIM's share of the global smartphone market has fallen from a peak of roughly 20 per cent in 2009 to about 6 per cent today. But continued strong sales in some markets and the annuity-style service revenues it charges mobile phone operators for use of its BlackBerry network have kept the company afloat as it has undertaken a painful restructuring, shedding 7,000 jobs and racing to complete a complex technical transition from its old operating system and ageing product portfolio to the new BB10 platform. As Phillip Redman, a Gartner research analyst, notes in a blog post: "There's no doubt that RIM has taken a hit on global smartphone market share – especially in the enterprise where it is rapidly being replaced by iPhones. It saw its installed base decrease for the first time in history by 2m in the last quarter, but in the famous words of Monty Python, it's, 'not dead yet!' " Mr Redman points to a Gartner survey in December 2012 of 222 companies, primarily in North America, when almost 14 per cent said they planned to still have BlackBerry as their primary platform in 12 months' time. "Speaking with clients regularly, I see the same level of interest – generally 15-20 per cent of mobile employees who still prefer RIM for its security and its hard keyboard," he said. Few doubt that RIM will be buoyed in the short term by pent-up demand for the BB10 devices. Analysts have noted that carriers have been running down their inventory of existing BlackBerry devices in preparation for the new handsets setting the stage for bumper sales in the quarters immediately following the launch. But the much harder question to answer is whether the new devices and operating system have what it takes to sustain a turnround at RIM and help BlackBerry regain its "mojo". It's the user experience that will make the difference, which is where RIM focused its energies - Phillip Redman, Gartner While a number of key details about the new devices, such as pricing and availability, remain unknown, Mr Heins has said there will be two new devices – one with touchscreen only, the other with both a touchscreen and a Qwerty keyboard. The company has also diligently wooed developers to ensure that BB10 launches with a good complement of apps – as well as the ability to run Android Apps – and last week launched an updated version of its BlackBerry Enterprise Sever software for companies. Network operators, which have been testing prototype devices since the autumn, also appear supportive. Last week, for example, Fran Shammo, Verizon's chief financial officer, went out of his way to welcome the arrival of the new BlackBerry operating system alongside Apple's iOS, Google Android and Microsoft's Windows Phone. "A lot depends on the handset launch and the next few quarters of sales," says Gartner's Mr Redman. "Preliminary views of the new device don't show much differentiation on hardware form factor – though it is skinny, feels solid and a similar size screen to the iPhone 5. It's the user experience that will make the difference, which is where RIM focused its energies." But the bears are still unconvinced. They say it will take more than a couple of good quarters to persuade them that RIM has a real future and they point out that even after the launch there are still many uncertainties. In particular, they question whether there really is enough room for another operating system in the smartphone market, whether it is already "too late" for a BlackBerry comeback and point out that a strategic review launched by RIM's board in conjunction with two investment banks last year might still recommend the sale of all or part of the company – especially if a deep-pocketed buyer like China's Lenovo comes knocking. Mr Heins has also conceded that the valuable services revenues RIM derives from the BlackBerry network are probably unsustainable. Network operators want RIM to lower the prices it charges to handle BlackBerry data and RIM itself has indicated that the company could move to a tiered services model in which basic consumer service is free, but consumers would pay incrementally more for add-on services. Mr Heins has said repeatedly that such questions would only be addressed after the BB10 launch. As such, the BB10 launch could turn out to be just the end of the beginning. In the meantime, however, Mr Redman says he does not expect BB10 device sales to surpass iOS or Android, but adds: "I think this device has great comeback potential." Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2013. You may share using our article tools. Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web. via Technology - Google News http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&fd=R&usg=AFQjCNEQHMrL8YblV5exO49lgAVrU8hVWg&url=http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/66e30740-693f-11e2-b254-00144feab49a.html

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